Long Run to Nuvali

I just found a new playground.

Before I ran to Nuvali, my plan was to run in loops twice and a half more for an 18-kilometer run. Then Lynnel, my sister-in-law, suggested I take the route to Nuvali. The idea was further reinforced when my church Pastor took me along for a Christian leadership training in Malvar, Batangas. Going to Batangas, we drive through the road to Nuvali.

Sunday morning, I was there running the agricultural fields of Silang, Cavite to Nuvali, Sta. Rosa, Laguna. It was a very satisfying long distance run and I am so glad to find this new running route for my weekend long runs. No more 3km and 7km loops on weekends, the Nuvali route is at least 18km and I will just extend the route more and more as my endurance builds and increases.

This route is mostly straight and descents. Armed with excitement for a new route and a new long distance record (my previous high was 15km last February), I was very excited. The views of the nature, the agricultural fields, grasses and trees and the very limited houses were a welcome sight. There were very few vehicles on the road. I reached the city of Sta. Rosa in 57 minutes (around 5:25 minutes per kilometer).

My difficulties began on my return run. First, I was starting to tire. Second, it is now 7 o'clock and the heat of the sun starts to torch my face and skin. Third and most difficult of all, the ascent is grueling and heart breaking. The sports tracker application said I ascended a total of a little less than 500 meters. That is quite high as I had always find it tough to bike my way to Tagaytay which has total ascent of 400 meters (Did I say I find 400m difficult on a bike? 500 on foot is therefore much harder). The uphill battle got the better of me as I gave up and walked a few meters before I reached the flats again. The return trip took 68 minutes (7:30 minutes per kilometer), way slower than my first 9 kilometers.

My First Long Run to Nuvali

I know I will beat this route better next weekend. For now, let me bask in my little triumph of upping my long distance record of year 2015 to 18.4 kilometers. Yehey!

Pacquiao - Mayweather: Five Common Opponents

We have already covered Pacquiao and Mayweather's five common opponents independently. It is now time to compare them, who is better relative to their respective body of work against the common five?

Image from wbcboxing.com

We continue our marathon coverage of the Pacquiao-Mayweather mega fight. This is entry No.004.

Caveat first, Pacquiao against Dela Hoya, Hatton and Marquez did not go the full 12 rounds. Also, Mayweather dispatched Ricky Hatton in 10 rounds. To compare the statistics, we must normalize them. Meaning, adjust the punch statistics to common and comparable values. Why?

1. If we compare the total punches thrown in a fight between a 12-round fight and an 8-round fight, we would err. The 8-round fight has less time to throw and land punches compared to 12 rounds.
2. Floyd knocked out Hatton in 10 rounds. Pacquiao did it in 2. If we do not normalize the statistics, we will conclude that Floyd throws much more punches than Manny. And Floyd connects with a lot more power shots compared to Manny. Which is incorrect. 

I normalized the statistics to project the 2 (Pacquiao-Hatton), 6 (Pacquiao-Marquez 4), 8 (Pacquiao-Dela Hoya) and 10 (Mayweather-Hatton) round fights to 12 full rounds. Paquiao-Cotto was also shortened by a knock-out victory, but it happened in the 12th round so we do not normalize that fight and let it be as it is.

• N = (S x 12) / R, where
• N is our normalized statistic
• S is our original statistic
• R is the completed number of rounds

A quick test of our formula is the Pacquiao-Marquez fight which ended in only 6 rounds. Pacquiao threw 256 punches in that fight after 6 rounds. Had it ended in 12, he most probably would have doubled that output. N = (256 x 12) / 6 = 512. Of course, we are only trying to estimate as close as possible. This need not be complex as a rocket science.

So, here we go. Let us compare our normalized Offense statistics. These are the punches they have thrown and landed against their five common opponents.

OFFENSE
Opponents	Floyd Mayweather, Jr			Manny Pacquiao
	Jabs	Power Shots	Total	Jabs	Power Shots	Total
Miguel Cotto	51 / 305	128 / 382	179 / 687	60 / 220	276 / 560	336 / 780
	16%	33%	26%	27%	49%	43%
Shane Mosley	85 / 210	123 / 267	208 / 477	47 / 374	177 / 353	224 / 727
	40%	46%	43%	12%	50%	30%
Oscar Dela Hoya	69 / 240	138 / 241	207 / 481	43 / 378	292 / 499	336 / 877
	28%	57%	39%	11%	58%	38%
Ricky Hatton	34 / 86	120 / 308	154 / 394	48 / 132	390 / 630	438 / 762
	39%	38%	39%	36%	61%	57%
Juan Manuel Marquez	185 / 316	105 / 177	290 / 493	52 / 216	136 / 296	188 / 512
	58%	59%	58%	24%	45%	36%
TOTAL	424 / 1157	614 / 1375	1038 / 2532	250 / 1320	1271 / 2338	1522 / 3658
	36%	44%	40%	18%	54%	41%
AVERAGE	84.8 / 231.4	122.8 / 275	207.6 / 506.4	50 / 264	254.2 / 467.6	304.4 / 731.6
	36%	44%	40%	18%	54%	41%

What do we see?

1. Pacquiao landed close to 100 more punches than Mayweather, 304 to 208.
2. Mayweather landed more jabs, as expected, 85 to Pacquiao's 50.
3. Pacquiao detonated 254 power shots to Mayweather's 123.  That is more than twice. Not only is Pacquiao the harder puncher as evidenced by his 3 knockouts to Mayweather's 1 against those 5 common opponents, Pacquiao also landed so much more.
4. Pacquiao is more accurate than Mayweather, 41% to 40%. Pacquiao's accuracy in landing the killer blows is 54% to Mayweather's 44%. Pacquiao is a puncher.
   
5. Mayweather is more accurate in terms of jabs, 36% to Pacquiao's 18%. Mayweather is a boxer.
6. Come fight night, Mayweather's jabs will be key to his victory. And so is Pacquiao's ability or inability to hurt Mayweather with his flurry of punches. If Mayweather lands his jabs often, it will be difficult for Pacquiao to setup his offensive prowess. Pacquiao needs to connect his power shots and how he defends, evades or ignores the Mayweather jabs will be a major factor in this fight. Puncher versus boxer.

How about Defense? Pacquiao may be very strong and very busy with his power shots, but if he cannot hit Mayweather then it's frigging useless. Mayweather also cannot box effectively if Pacquiao can defend well against his jabs and his counter punches. So how have they defended against their common five opponents?

These are the punches their five common opponents have thrown and landed against them.

DEFENSE
Opponents	Floyd Mayweather, Jr			Manny Pacquiao
	Jabs	Power Shots	Total	Jabs	Power Shots	Total
Miguel Cotto	30 / 177	75 / 329	105 / 506	79 / 297	93 / 300	172 / 597
	16%	22%	20%	26%	31%	28%
Shane Mosley	46 / 283	46 / 169	92 / 452	44 / 250	22 / 80	66 / 330
	16%	27%	20%	17%	27%	20%
Oscar Dela Hoya	40 / 246	51 / 164	82 / 341	48 / 357	76 / 246	124 / 603
	16%	24%	20%	13%	30%	20%
Ricky Hatton	13 / 75	62 / 361	75 / 446	12 / 132	96 / 336	108 / 468
	17%	17%	16%	9%	28%	23%
Juan Manuel Marquez	21 / 288	48 / 295	69 / 583	22 / 192	82 / 300	104 / 492
	7%	16%	11%	11%	27%	21%
TOTAL	150 / 1069	313 / 1495	463 / 2574	205 / 1228	369 / 1262	574 / 2490
	14%	20%	17%	16%	29%	23%
AVERAGE	30 / 213.8	62.6 / 299	92.6 / 514.8	41 / 245.6	73.8 / 252.4	114.8 / 498
	14%	20%	17%	16%	29%	23%

What do we see?

1. Pacquiao has good defense, Mayweather has even better. Only 17% of punches thrown against Mayweather were able to land. Pacquiao managed to defend well, but not against 23% of punches thrown at him.
2. In terms of the punches connected against them, Mayweather absorbed 93 to Pacquiao's 115. Over the course of those 5 fights, Pacquiao had to accept 574 punches to Mayweather's 463. It is pretty clear the Floyd Mayweather, Jr has better defense.
3. Mayweather defended better against power shots. Of those power shots with bad intentions behind them, Pacquiao got punched 74 times per fight. Mayweather only 63.
4. To defend against power shots, it usually starts with defending well against the setup jabs. Mayweather was jabbed only 14% to Pacquiao's 16%. Both are very good defenders against the jabs, Mayweather is just better.
5. On fight night, Pacquiao needs to break Mayweather's superb defense to win the fight. Mayweather will be well-covered like the Great Wall of China and Pacquiao needs to constantly look for an opening and find a way somehow to wear down this defensive wall. Pacquiao needs to penetrate this defense regularly and often. That's not going to be easy to do against Mayweather.

Against Cotto, Mosley, Dela Hoya, Hatton and Marquez, we have shown that Manny Pacquiao has superior offense and Floyd Mayweather has superior defense.

However, much of those fights were about 3 or more years ago. Those are very old statistics already especially because Manny and Floyd are now in the late stages of their careers. They are ageing quite fast.

The five fights against common opponents are great fights to be introduced to how great Pacquiao and Mayweather are. They also told us much about the fighters' styles and strengths. We are only getting started.

Next time, we will do the same things we did about Pacquiao and Mayweather's five common opponents and apply them to their last 3 fights. These fights will tell us how their styles have somewhat changed and how fast or slow they have declined and aged. We will see how Floyd becomes a bit more offensive and how Manny transformed into a more balanced fighter in terms of his offense and defense.