My Boxing Bet

Predicting the outcome of a boxing match correctly can win you a nice amount of money. Predict the winner of the match.. and you win some.. Predict which way your chosen winning fighter wins.. and you win a little more.. Predict that your fighter wins by knock out in which round and you win a respectable amount of money.

The last time I checked on skybet.com, this prediction I am about to make can give me a return of P25,000 for an investment of P1,000. I have placed my P4,000 bet already (P100,000 worth if I am correct). Do not bet the farm though, bets are nothing but predictions.. ;)

Quote of the Day - Niels Bohr - "Prediction is very difficult, especially if it's about the future."

Hey, I can try.
Here is how I see the Juan Manuel Marquez (JMM) - Manny Pacquiao (PAC) World Super Featherweight Championship bout on March 16 plays out:

Rounds 1 to 3.
JMM fights with caution. PAC tries to read JMM's fight plan. JMM jabs a lot to keep PAC at bay. PAC with a lot of head movements and side-to-side footwork to avoid the stiff jabs constantly throwned at him.

JMM appears to win most of the rounds because of the jab and because he controls the pace of the fight so far -- slow and defensive. PAC contented to test the body and defense of JMM. PAC appears not to do any effective damage though.

After the first 3 rounds, JMM leads 2 rounds to 1.

Round 4. PAC getting busier. He knows JMM will not initiate the contact. PAC's work rate increases. JMM more cautious on this round. The psychological effect of being knocked down thrice in the first match is too much for him to ignore. PAC does not seem to bother being behind on points, he stalks JMM and appears to land some good shots. The right hook lands sharp. JMM more cautious than ever, continues to fight behind the jab.

Round 5. PAC lands the left straight with dashing speed. JMM shrugged it off and retaliates with a right hook and a left uppercut. The crowd goes crazy. PAC lands another right hook, and another one. JMM backpedals.

The fight is getting faster now and the momentum is swinging to PAC's favor. JMM knows he's beginning to be dragged into PAC's fighting pace so JMM throws a lot more jabs and is not letting PAC get inside. PAC weaving his head continuously, he does not want to stop at all and eats some of JMM's jab in the process.

After 5 rounds, JMM leads with three rounds to two.

Round 6. PAC goes to the body, 3 solid shots landed downstairs. JMM appears hurt this time. PAC stalked JMM to the corner. PAC unloading a barrage of punches. JMM cannot go out of the corner, he is still hurt by the body punches. PAC connected with a right uppercut. PAC digs to the body, JMM countered with a solid right flush on PAC's face. JMM connected again with the left uppercut. PAC raises both fists as if to say, "Let's get it on." The crowd is on its feet. PAC dashes again to unload his body attack, PAC seem to target JMM's body a lot in this round and JMM able to counter PAC. Last ten seconds, JMM leads with the right cross. PAC moves inside to JMMs body and finished with a hard combination to the body.

After 6 rounds, it's 3 rounds for both combatants.

In PAC's corner.. Coach Roach reminds PAC not to get careless while moving in but commends PAC with the body blows. "Bumabagal na sya, Konting pasok pa sa katawan.. bibigay na yan (JMM's getting slower bacause of the body blows, a little bit more and his body will soon fall), " remarked Buboy Ferandez with enthusiasm and excitement.

In JMM's corner.. Coach Nacho does not like what he sees.. He urges JMM to throw the jab more.. throw it a lot more.. "You're letting him close the distance.. throw the jabs more. throw some power behind the jab.. Make him pay for it. (In Spanish of course)."

Round 7.
PAC makes the sign of the cross before the bell rings to start the round. PAC attacked JMM once again. PAC is a lot busier with his head and footwork.. JMM waits for his chance to counter and keeps PAC at bay with strong jabs. PAC faked the right jab and moved to his left.. He perfectly timed JMM as JMM moved to his right.. PAC unleashed the left hook to JMM's right abdomen. The crowd shouted in awe. PAC followed it up with a hook to the face. JMM backpedals anew. PAC gains momentum and continues to drive forward. He stalked JMM wherever he preferred to go.

JMM appears to be bothered by the body blows.
PAC's face is reddened and swollen by JMM's counter punches though.
This is an outstanding give and take fight for the PAC monster.
Harold Lederman has it 67 - 66 to PAC. He emphasized PAC getting busier and stronger and won 3 straight rounds from 5, 6 and 7 after trailing 3 rounds to 1 in the first 4 rounds.
Larry Merchant has it 67-67. He called the 5th round even.

Round 8.
JMM's feet is solidly planted on the canvas, he waits for PAC to get in and punish him with combinations of his own. PAC moving a lot, he blocks a lot of JMM's counter and is making JMM off balance by showing in a lot of angles. JMM prefers to stay in his counter-punching position while PAC still moves a lot sideways. JMM appears to be tiring and PAC is slowing down in the punches thrown stats as well. The crowd booed for the 1st minute of the 8th round.. JMM is cautious as ever and PAC seems to cruise through the round. Both fighters are taking a breather.

Going into the last minute of the round.. PAC feints a lot.. JMM throwing lots of jabs to keep PAC away. JMM's height and reach advantage helping him a lot at this stage of the fight. PAC landed the right hook to the face, and moves out of harm's reach. He dashes again with the lead left straight.. and it landed. JMM's counter missed, PAC planted the right hook to the body. PAC attends to JMM's face with 3-punch combo.. PAC is on his rhythm now.. JMM's accuracy is decreasing due to the heavy blows he's been receiving to the body. PAC unleashing and connecting more and more.. It's a landslide round for PAC in the 8th.

Round 9.
Coach Nacho is angry with JMM. He wants JMM to move more to avoid PAC.. "You cannot just stand in there.. Throw the jabs and keep him guessing.. Move to the right a lot more.. Avoid the left straight.. (In Spanish still)."
Coach Roach urges PAC to unload the heavy blows in the following round. "No more body shots now, Give him some power shots this time.. Remember how you punch against the heavy bag, Manny? Manny, listen to me.. throw power shots at him."

The round begins.. JMM still jabbing and is now able to move faster to avoid the rushing Pacquiao. JMM connects with the uppercut but missed with the right hook. PAC moves away and took the uppercut nicely. Both fighters have a strong chin. PAC dashes again after JMM missed with the jab.. PAC moves to JMM's side and unloaded the right hook upstairs. PAC getting more accurate.. He lands the left uppercut and followed it up with a right hook again.. JMM wobbles to the corner.. PAC calculates the safe distance while stalking at his prey.. He feints a right jab and strongly delivers the left straight.. JMM is hurt.. PAC continues with his flurries.. PAC connects with the right uppercut.. JMM is down.

One.. Two.. the crowd is on its feet once again.. Pac mania has never been so alive.. The Mexican cheering JMM to get up.. JMM is up again after the 7th count.. His eyes seem OK but his legs are still wobbly.. PAC attacks anew at the signal of the referee.. PAC landed the patented 1-2 -- right jab, left straight combo.. JMM is hurt.. He's hurt.. PAC took him to the corner and attempts to finish off the wobbling JMM.. Hooks and straights connected.. JMM still punching back.. Pac connects with the thundering left straight..

JMM is down and OUT. He took a lot of punishment in the 9th.
PAC takes the Super Featherweight Championship of the World..
I take P100,000 more in my bank account.
What a great day!