I had my first long run of the year last Sunday. It was frustratingly slow but I had lots of fun while having walk breaks and just enjoying the sceneries on Silang, Cavite. That was 12 kilometers of running and walking after a month-long self-imposed non-running rest and recovery. I finished the early morning run in about an hour and a half.
Now we proceed on our Season 2 objective - Qualifying for Boston!
Season 2: The Road To BostonChapter 2. Road Work
2.1 The Boston Qualifier Plan
Before we could even go to Boston, we still have to conquer the most popular running event in the Philippines. Yeah! The Milo Marathon. That was one well-participated running event last July 2009 wherein over 20,000 runners participated. And it was not even the Milo Finals, it was just the Manila Qualifying Leg of the Milo Tour. You could just imagine how big it was on the Finals.
The Milo Marathon 2009 started on February in Subic. Milo toured the key cities of the Philippines in search for marathon qualifiers. Subic, Dipolog, Batangas, Iligan, General Santos, Puerto Princesa, Cebu, Manila, Tarlac, Davao, Butuan, Santiago City, Laoag, Cagayan de Oro, Tacloban, San Fernando, Tagbilaran, Baguio, Dagupan, Roxas City, Legazpi, Ilo-Ilo, Bacolod, Naga, San Pablo and Dumaguete. North to South and East to West of the Philippine Islands were visited and invited to run and qualify.
How many met the 4-hour marathon qualifying time and 1:15 hour half marathon qualifying time for the Milo Marathon Finals last October 11? Less than 500. Last 2008 and 2007? Less than 200 marathoners each. By the numbers, Milo Marathon Finals is one tough marathon event to qualify for.
And this tough local marathon event should be our stepping stone to Boston. Do we register a 3:10:59 hours on the Milo Manila marathon qualifying leg? NO. Not yet.
It would have been great to be able to do that. Realistically though, I don't think I can do it this early. Let's examine our last performances.
Last 5K race: 0:21:30.
Last 10K race: 0:44:10.
Last Marathon: 3:55:36.
For the Milo Qualifying Marathon 2010, we only need to duplicate our PIM marathon performace. However, we've got the Boston Marathon as the target. So we need to improve and get as close to 3:10:59 as much as possible. The keyword there is "possible."
Marathon Finish Time Approximation
A close approximation of a marathon finish time based on a 10K race finish time is to multiply it by a factor of 5. Mathematically 10Km x 5 equals 50Km. That is much longer than than the 42.195Km marathon distance. You have to consider fatigue in this approximation and some other intangibles not applicable to a 10K race. With that, I believe the 10Km multiplied by 5 is close enough to being accurate. See the following table for our reference.
| 10K Time | X5 Approx. | RW's TC Time | *** | 10K Time | X5 Approx. | RW's TC Time |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 50 minutes | 4:10 hours | 3:49:59 | 40 minutes | 3:20 hours | 3:03:59 | |
| 49 | 4:05 | 3:45:23 | 39 | 3:15 | 2:59:23 | |
| 48 | 4:00 | 3:40:47 | 38 | 3:10 | 2:54:47 | |
| 47 | 3:55 | 3:36:11 | 37 | 3:05 | 2:50:11 | |
| 46 | 3:50 | 3:31:35 | 36 | 3:00 | 2:45:35 | |
| 45 | 3:45 | 3:26:59 | 35 | 2:55 | 2:40:59 | |
| 44 | 3:40 | 3:22:23 | 34 | 2:50 | 2:36:23 | |
| 43 | 3:35 | 3:17:47 | 33 | 2:45 | 2:31:47 | |
| 42 | 3:30 | 3:13:11 | 32 | 2:40 | 2:27:11 | |
| 41 | 3:25 | 3:08:35 | 31 | 2:35 | 2:22:35 |
My last 10K was 44 minutes suggesting a 3:40-hour marathon finish time. My last marathon was 3:55. Given the right knee injury I suffered, which I suppose was not included in the multiply by 5 approximation, the above table is a close-enough approximation.
Eduardo Buenavista, The Philippines premier marathoner, registered his best 10K time of 29 minutes. His best marathon time is 2:18 hours, just 7 minutes off the estimated finish time of 2:25 hours (using the 10K x 5 approximation).
While the approximation is just that (an approximation!), I believe the variance can be attributed to (1) proper marathon training (2) marathon race course and humidity / weather and lastly (3) the runner's endurance. A runner may not be able to carry his 10K speed to a marathon race due to his endurance threshold. Another runner might be able to run faster than his approximated finish time due to superb endurance.
So what's the point?
We will use a 10K race to gauge our future performance on the Milo Marathon Eliminations this coming July. Doing that, we will hit three birds in one stone.
- We will gradually train for the Milo Marathon by preparing for a 10K race first. Gradual training will help us build our running mileage. No rush, no injuries.
- We will be able to predict our future marathon performance much earlier than actually running a marathon. Thus, we could adjust and improve as early as possible. If we meet the target finish time, great. We will just continue with our training methods. If not, then we need to reevaluate and rethink our methods.
- A 10K race should help us improve our speed. That's a major boost to our qualifying chances. In short, we will be doing lots of speed training first before we jump on to our full marathon training.
Runner's World Training Calculator
Here's a catch, the 10K x5 approximation can be much improved if we train properly. I have opined on why the x5 approximation could be off due to a runner's fatigue and endurance factor and his/her marathon training. We could limit the effects of these factors by training effectively.
Consider Runner's World Training Calculator. For a 39-minute 10K Finish, the x5 marathon approximation suggests 3:15 hours. The Training Calculator suggests 2:59 hours! I would absolutely like to train effectively and meet the suggestion of the Runner's World Training Calculator. To achieve that, however, we would have to follow the suggested training paces. Easier said than done!
The Runner's World predicted finish times are listed on the above table (RW's TC Time Column). As suggested on the Runner's Wolrd website: These times are projected equivalents and are not a guarantee of performance or final race distance times.
Our task then is to use these approximations as our guide to meet our marathon qualifying times. For the sub-40 minute 10Km finish time, Runner's World suggested these training paces:
- 4:51 min/km EASY PACE
- 4:01 min/km TEMPO PACE
- 3:37 min/km MAXIMUM OXYGEN TRAINING PACE (intervals)
- 4:51 - 5:29 min/km LONG RUN PACE
Jan 27, 2010: Did 7km Easy Run. Finished it in 33:51 minutes -- 4:51 min/km. Yey! Just the suggested pace for my target sub-40 minute 10Km finish time.
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