Forecasting my Half Marathon Finish Time

My Half Marathon Training Schedule

Week #	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat	Sun
1		Yasso x 4			Easy 17k		Long 21k
2		Yasso x 5			Easy 17k		Long 23k
3		Yasso x 6		Tempo 12k			Long 25k
4		Yasso x 7		Tempo 12k			Long 23k
5		Easy 10k		Tempo 8k			Race 21k

Yasso 800s 

You can predict your marathon time based on how long it takes you to run 800 meters!!!

1. 800meter Intervals. Recovery is same time as the 800m was completed (about 400m of jogging to recover).
2. Discovered by Bart Yasso (Read more about the Yasso Training Run)
3. A very good high-intensity interval training run
4. I want to do my Yasso 800s in about 3:00 - 3:20 minutes for a 3:20 hour Milo Marathon.

Yasso Training Run Data

The following tables show my Yasso 800-meters training data starting from Week#1 to Week#4 of my 5-Week Half Marathon training runs. Basically, I would run 800m and then jog for the same amount of time I have finished the 800m lap. I started to do 4 repeats on Week#1 and then increased it by +1 more repeat every week thereafter.

I will start this training run with a moderately intense dynamic stretching routines. Then 2 kilometers of warm up run before I formally start my Yasso sessions. I would hit the lap button on my running watch at the start of the 800m, hit it again on the completion of the 800m, and then hit it again after the recovery run. After I have completed all the repetitions, I would run another 1.6 - 2 kilometers to cool down. Lastly, I would finish the training run with static stretching routines focused on the arms and leg muscles.

Highlighted in red is the slowest 800m of each Yasso training day. We will use this slowest time to predict our marathon and half marathon finish times. Expectedly, my slowest laps were registered at the last or the next to the last 800m lap. Exhaustion and energy depletion must have been the culprits of these slow times.

Yasso 800m x 4 (Date: APRIL 19)

Lap #	800m Time	Pace (min/km)	Recovery Jog	800m - Recovery
1	3:00	3:46	2:39	+21 seconds
2	3:02	3:48	3:01	+1
3	3:06	3:53	2:43	+23
4	3:03	3:49

Yasso 800m x 5 (Date: APRIL 26)

Lap #	800m Time	Pace (min/km)	Recovery Jog	800m - Recovery
1	2:55	3:40	2:55	+0 seconds
2	2:55	3:40	3:25	-30
3	3:00	3:46	2:56	+4
4	3:05	3:52	3:08	-3
5	3:10	3:58

Yasso 800m x 6 (Date: MAY 03)

Lap #	800m Time	Pace (min/km)	Recovery Jog	800m - Recovery
1	3:02	3:48	2:52	+10 seconds
2	3:02	3:49	3:16	-14
3	3:07	3:55	2:52	+15
4	3:09	3:57	2:53	+16
5	3:04	3:51	3:05	-1
6	3:12	4:02

Yasso 800m x 7 (Date: MAY 12)

Lap #	800m Time	Pace (min/km)	Recovery Jog	800m - Recovery
1	2:57	3:42	2:41	+16 seconds
2	2:58	3:43	3:03	-5
3	3:02	3:48	2:49	+13
4	3:04	3:52	3:32	-28
5	3:02	3:48	3:05	-3
6	3:09	3:57	3:22	-11
7	3:11	3:59

Half Marathon Predictions

For the full marathon, we need to complete 10 sets of Yasso 800m laps to predict our marathon finish times. Had we finished 10 sets with the slowest 800m lap recorded at 3:11 minutes, the predicted marathon finish time would be 3:11 hours.

We have not yet completed 10 sets and we only aim to test this Yasso training method on the half marathon. Instead of 10 sets for the full marathon, I will be using 7 sets for the half marathon.

I have finished my 7 sets of Yassos with the slowest times recorded at 3:06, 3:10, 3:12 and 3:11 minutes. 

Half of 3:12 minutes is 1:36. For the Greentennial Half Marathon race this May 22, my predicted finish time is 1:36 hours. And that is well within my 1:40-hour target finish time.

A few more Tempo Runs to simulate my target race pace and with God's will and help, we might be able to confirm Mr. Bart Yasso's interesting discovery.