Pacquiao - Mayweather: Their Last 3 Fights

Last time around, we have finished our review and analysis of Pacquiao and Mayweather's five common opponents. The statistics have shown that Pacquiao has superior offense whereas Mayweather has much better defense.

Now we move on forward with their last three fights. We will see how much they have improved and declined on their most recent fights. We will also explore how their strategies have changed and how they are coping with their advanced age. Pacquiao is 36 to Mayweather's 38.

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We continue our marathon coverage of the Pacquiao-Mayweather mega fight. This is entry No.005.

The following statistics shows Pacquiao and Mayweather's punch output against their last three foes. Mayweather last fough Marcos Maidana twice and Saul Alvarez. Meanwhile, Manny fought Chris Algieri, Timothy Bradley and Brandon Rios.


The OFFENSE

OFFENSE
Opponents	Floyd Mayweather, Jr			Manny Pacquiao
	Jabs	Power Shots	Total	Jabs	Power Shots	Total
Marcos Maidana 2 / Chris Algieri	52 / 152	178 / 274	230 / 426	42 / 259	187 / 410	229 / 669
	34%	64%	53%	16%	45%	34%
Marcos Maidana 1 / Tim Bradley 2	64 / 149	102 / 177	166 / 326	50 / 219	148 / 344	198 / 563
	42%	57%	50%	22%	43%	35%
Saul Alvarez / Brandon Rios	139 / 330	93 / 175	232 / 505	58 / 322	223 / 468	281 / 790
	42%	53%	45%	18%	47%	35%
TOTAL	255 / 631	373 / 626	628 / 1257	150 / 800	558 / 1222	708 / 2022
	40%	59%	49%	18%	45%	35%
AVERAGE	85 / 210.3	124.3 / 208.7	209.3 / 419	50 / 266.7	186 / 407.3	236 / 674
	40%	59%	49%	18%	45%	35%

1. The story of the jab accounts for the huge discrepancy in their offense. Mayweather lands 40% of his jabs compared to Pacquiao's poor 18%. In terms of quantity, Mayweather landed 255 jabs to Pacquiao's 150 total. This is a critical part of the fight that we should take note. Mayweather can win this fight just by jabbing and getting away from Pacquiao. This will make the fight boring to watch and much easier for Mayweather to come up victorious.
2. On power shots, the numbers are much closer. Mayweather is very impressive with his 59% accuracy. Pacquiao is accurate, 45%, but relies more on volume punching.
3. Speaking of volume, Mayweather throws only about half of Pacquiao's 407 average power punches per fight. As a result, even with a lower accuracy, Pacquiao connected 186 to Mayweather's 124. That is 62 more shots to hurt and knock his opponent down.
4. Mayweather's accuracy to Pacquiao's volume. Mayweather will be choosy on his punches while Pacquiao will be very busy throwing bombs often. By defending more against the voluminous punches coming from Pacquiao, Mayweather's punch output will dip even more. Pacquiao threw a total of 2000 punches to Mayweather's 1200 in these 3 fights. The busier and more aggressive fighter will be Pacquiao.

The DEFENSE

DEFENSE
Opponents	Floyd Mayweather, Jr			Manny Pacquiao
	Jabs	Power Shots	Total	Jabs	Power Shots	Total
Marcos Maidana 2 / Chris Algieri	36 / 318	185 / 540	221 / 858	28 / 257	80 / 212	108 / 469
	11%	34%	25%	10%	37%	23%
Marcos Maidana 1 / Tim Bradley 2	41 / 237	87 / 335	128 / 572	32 / 287	109 / 340	138 / 502
	17%	25%	22%	11%	32%	22%
Saul Alvarez / Brandon Rios	44 / 294	73 / 232	117 / 526	25 / 239	113 / 263	138 / 502
	14%	31%	22%	10%	42%	27%
TOTAL	121 / 849	345 / 1107	466 / 1956	85 / 783	302 / 815	387 / 1598
	14%	31%	23%	10%	37%	24%
AVERAGE	40.3 / 283	115 / 369	155.3 / 652	28.3 / 261	100.7 / 271.7	129 / 532.7
	14%	31%	23%	10%	37%	24%

1. Pacquiao defended better against jabs. Only 10% of jabs connected against him whereas 14% were able to hit Mayweather. In total jabs, only 28 for Pacquiao and 40 for Mayweather.
2. Pacquiao also defended better against power shots in terms of total shots he absorbed. Pacquiao was hit by 101 power shots per fight compared to 115 for Mayweather.
3. Overall, Pacquiao was only hit 387 times by Algieri, Bradley and Rios while Mayweather got hit 466 times by Alvarez and Maidana in 2 fights.
4. Based on percentage, Mayweather got the better of Pacquiao. Only 31% of power shots and 23% of all punches combined connected against him, whereas Pacquiao got hit 37% of power shots and 24% of all punches.
5. More punches are being thrown against Mayweather as compared to Pacquiao. Part of this, we give credit to Maidana for unleashing an aggressive attack againt Floyd. Part also to Pacquiao because his in-and-out style makes it more difficult for his opponents to throw a punch against him. Mayweather has stood more in front of his opponents that is why more punches are being thrown against him.

Pacquiao's Decline

The prime years of Manny Pacquiao were when he outclassed Dela Hoya, Hatton and Cotto. He perhaps started to slow down and declined before or after the Juan Manuel Marquez knock out. 

Let us graph Pacquiao's offense and defense. On the OFFENSE half of the following graphs, the first pair of bars shows his average statistics against his 5 common opponents with Mayweather. The second pair of bars shows his average against his last 3 opponents. Likewise, on the DEFENSE half of the graphs, the first pair is against 5 common opponents with Mayweather and the second pair is against his last 3.

Pacquiao's Overall Punches Thrown (OFFENSE) and Thrown Against Him (DEFENSE)

Clearly, Pacquiao's punch output is down from 731 to 674. Even more alarming, his punch connected has significantly dropped from 304 to 236. On defense, he has now allowed 129 punches to land against him. About 14 more from 114.8 against the 5 common opponents with Mayweather. Offense has declined much and defense has declined a little.

Pacquiao's POWER Punches

The Power punches of Manny Pacquiao are in serious decline. We have not seen him knock out an opponent since Miguel Cotto in 2009, almost a 6-year KO drought. And much of it is due to his downward output in total power shots thrown (from 467 to 407) and mostly in power shots connected (from a 254 to 186).


Mayweather's DECLINE
It is not only Pacquiao who is on the decline. Even Floyd Mayweather has succumbed to ageing. He does not move a lot like when he was younger. Today, he stands more against his opponents which has significantly degraded his defense.

Mayweather's Total Punches Thrown (OFFENSE) and Thrown Against Him (DEFENSE)

Mayweather's POWER Punches

Mayweather has retained his offense and has even improved his accuracy by reducing his movements around the boxing ring. The negative side of it is he becomes more vulnerable to his opponents attacks. From a very tight defense allowing only 93 total punches per fight, he now absorbs 155. More telling, 115 power shots are landing against him which was only 63 previously. Compared with Pacquiao, Mayweather's defense is no longer impeccable.

Conclusions

PACQUIAO HAS DECLINED IN HIS OFFENSIVE OUTBURST.

• Pacquiao has declined in his punch output. Against their 5 common opponents, his average punches was 304 / 731. In his last 3 fights, it was down to 236 / 674. The punches are lesser and the accuracy is lower. Pacquiao's offense has definitely declined. He needs to improve on this to have a better chance against Mayweather.
• On defense, Pacquiao remains elusive with his movements. His defense against jabs is superior to Mayweather. However, his aggressiveness on offense gives a lot of opportunities for his opponents to fire back and counter him, usually with power shots. As a result, Pacquiao is still hittable with an alarming 37% of punches that landed against him.

MAYWEATHER HAS DECLINED IN HIS DEFENSIVE WIZARDRY.

• Mayweather has became even more accurate. This accuracy is very impressive and somewhat scary. His punch output has declined from 506 to 419 but his connection still managed to improve from 207.6 to 209. Almost 1 of every 2 punches land!
• On defense, Mayweather has opened himself up more. From evading 17% of his opponents total punches, his defense has gone worse to 23%. From 93 punches connected against him, the number went up to 155. This has got to improve. Mayweather cannot just stand against Pacquiao like what he did most of the time against Alvarez and Maidana. He needs to jab and take advantage of his 5-inch longer reach to stay away from Pacquiao.